WNBA Bet Predictions - May 30, 2023
Day 1 of tracking each and every spread/total... Current Record: 0-0.
As I’ve made abundantly clear in the past, I live for women’s basketball. My experience on the women’s Division I coaching side mixed with a lifelong obsession with the sport has given me a unique way of seeing the game.
When it comes to the betting on the women’s game, my philosophy is simple: there’s always an angle. It’s simply not possible to predict the correct result of every game. We all know it’s not realistic. Still though, the rise of analytics in the early 2000s made it clearer than ever that there’s always an advantage to be had.
Our goal is to find that advantage and make the most of it.
With that said, here’s a look at my predictions for tonight’s games and what to be on the lookout for.
New York Liberty (2-1) @ Seattle Storm (0-2)
Line: New York -16.0
O/U: 162.5
In a game of two teams headed in completely different directions, the Liberty’s length and veteran leadership could be enough to challenge this game’s aggressive line. And believe me, every part of me gets scared betting on a favorite when the line looks like this, but Seattle is really not a good team. Add in Breanna Stewart returning to Seattle for the first time in a different jersey, and there’s a lot of motivation for the Liberty to make a statement.
Pick: New York -16.0
The line is on the challenging side with an extreme -16.0, and the total gives bettors an equally hazy look at profits. Now, the Storm isn’t just the worst team in the W this season. I’m also pretty sure there’s a “Wanted: any type of defense” sign posted all around Seattle as it gives up 100 ppg. There’s no doubt that New York is full of scorers and will put a lot of stress on that number. On the other end, the Liberty play a consistent brand of defense and have only gone over the 162.5 once this season in a game against the Indiana Fever that ended in a total of 163. So, what’s the call? Well, it might be closer to a coin-toss and is far from my favorite bets of the night, but I’d lean more toward points than away from them.
Pick: Over 162.5
Chicago Sky (3-1) @ Atlanta Dream (1-2)
Line: Chicago -2.5
O/U: 162.0
The return of Marina Mabrey in Chicago’s 94-88 win over the Dallas Wings put the league on notice. This squad is far deeper than people expected after losing so many important players over the offseason. Atlanta’s Rhyne Howard leads the team in shot attempts per game at 18, but has only converted on 6.3 makes per game. Any hint of that inefficiency early in this matchup, and Atlanta could see this one getting away from them quickly.
Pick: Chicago -2.5
Maybe you missed the score of the Sky’s last game in the prior paragraph, maybe you didn’t. What I’m almost certain of is that you won’t miss seeing a lot of shots go up as each of these organizations isn’t shy about letting that thing fly. A 162.0 total feels insultingly low.
Pick: Over 162.0
Indiana Fever (1-2) @ Connecticut Sun (3-1)
Line: Connecticut -12.5
O/U: 159.0
This line simply makes no sense. Yes, Connecticut started its year with a three-game win streak—including beating the Washington Mystics twice. But don’t be fooled by the squad’s early success. The Sun’s primary offensive strength comes from its frontcourt and ability to punish people in the paint. Outside of that, Connecticut is very handicapped along the perimeter. These two teams opened up the season playing each other in a game that saw Indiana lose by 9 points. I expect the result of this one to be something similar.
Pick: Indiana +12.5
This might be the most challenging total of the night. Though Indiana has a roster full of very capable shooters, it hasn’t shot the ball well from three thus far. The result is a team who has to resort to getting tough baskets. Connecticut falls into the same rocky boat as it attempts the W’s second-fewest three-pointers per game at 20.0 whereas it leads the league in free-throw attempts per game with 28.5. If you’re wondering why two teams who average less than 76 ppg make this total a tough call, then look no further than the free-throw line. A collection of calls has the potential to add some unnecessary scoring in this one, but this bet feels like an easy one to overthink. So, let’s not do that.
Pick: Under 159.0
Minnesota Lynx (0-4) @ Dallas Wings (2-1)
Line: Dallas -5.5
O/U: 167.0
On one side, Minnesota’s gotten off to the WNBA’s worst record due to its inability to find a rotation with the skill set to consistently put the ball into the basket—its 74.3 ppg ranks last in the league. On the other, this Dallas team is still wildly underrated and has the chance to add even more firepower to its team in this one with the possible return of Teaira McCowan. A -6.0 line assumes the Lynx has the offensive firepower capable of keeping up with a Wings team who averages 89.3 ppg.
Pick: Dallas -5.5
When it comes to the total here, neither team is much good at keeping their opponents from scoring with Minnesota giving up 86.0 ppg and Dallas conceding 87.7 ppg. Though the numbers point to a clear over, the eye test says otherwise. The Lynx play a hardnosed style of defense and excel when running a zone—whether the team goes to it or not is on them. The return of McCowan would bring an interior presence capable of limiting Minnesota’s second-chance opportunities. I love the Wings proficiency in scoring the rock, but there’s multiple defensive elements at play in this one with the chance of keeping the points lower than expected.
Pick: Under 167.0